The Forecast

The centerpiece of this website is of course the electoral college forecast. On launch, it looked remarkably grim for Biden, but with his departure, the race is much more of a toss up. But where does the underlying data come from?

A blend of voter registration data, recent election results, and polling from the state and national levels. Registration data, while always changing, will largely stay the same, as changes there tend to be gradual (At least, as in terms of the length of an election cycle). The primary data point that will be changing here are the state and national polling, which I’ll be updating daily as they are released.

In fulfillment of my goal of transparency and objectivism, I will tell you now that I do have certain criterion for a poll to be included. The foremost of which is that the poll must have publicly available crosstab data. Thankfully, very few polls fail to disclose this information, and the few that do not diclose come from firms with a strong partisan bent.

On that point, I will include polling from firms that are partisan aligned (ex: Cygnal (R), Public Policy Polling (D)) but will not include internal campaign polls, which tend to be released for political purposes and often do not disclose crosstab information anyway.

For any further questions, I’ll leave this Google Form, which will ask you to sign in for anti-spam and harassment purposes, but will be completely anonymous to me.