The crystal ball forecast

2024 General Election

Nov 4, 2024

President

The race for the White House

Forecast Odds

Trump
85%
chance to win
Trump
Harris
14%
chance to win
Harris

House

Chance to control the chamber

Democrats 18%Republicans 82%

Senate

Chance to control the chamber

Democrats 0%Republicans 100%

Governors

The races for the statehouses

Forecast not yet available

Final pre-election forecast · Nov 4, 2024. Percentages are win probabilities, not vote shares.

Campaign and forecast updates

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2024 Report Card
March 29, 2025

2024 Report Card

Grading Myself vs. The Competition

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Election Archive

Past forecasts. And grades.

2024General ElectionPresident · House · SenateExplore forecast How did the forecast do? Read the 2024 report card
Behind the numbers

About
Pollstradamus

How it got started. An indie forecast built from polling, voter registration, and electoral history.

More about Pollstradamus
Inside the forecast

Explore the races in detail

01
2024 forecast

President

The path to 270 electoral votes.

Harris
Harris14%chance to win
Trump
Trump85%chance to win
ALAKARAZCACOCTDEDCFLGAHIIAIDILINKSLAKYME12MAMDMIMNMSMTMONE123NHNJNMNYNCNDNVOHOKORPARISCSDTNTXUTVTVAWVWIWYNo changeState flipElectoralvotes
The range of possibilities

How many electoral votes could each candidate win?

Explore the distribution of outcomes in the model's simulations.

TrumpTaller bars = more likely
Hover, drag, or use arrow keys to explore
HarrisTaller bars = more likely
Hover, drag, or use arrow keys to explore
02
2024 forecast

House

435 seats. 218 for the majority.

Democrats 18%Republicans 82%
Democrats198
Projected seats
Republicans237
435 House seats: 237 Republican, 198 DemocraticEach circle represents one projected seat, grouped by party. 218 seats are needed for a majority. These are aggregate projections, not district-level predictions.Democratic projected seat 1Democratic projected seat 2Democratic projected seat 3Democratic projected seat 4Democratic projected seat 5Democratic projected seat 6Democratic projected seat 7Democratic projected seat 8Democratic projected seat 9Democratic projected seat 10Democratic projected seat 11Democratic projected seat 12Democratic projected seat 13Democratic projected seat 14Democratic projected seat 15Democratic projected seat 16Democratic projected seat 17Democratic projected seat 18Democratic projected seat 19Democratic projected seat 20Democratic projected seat 21Democratic projected seat 22Democratic projected seat 23Democratic projected seat 24Democratic projected seat 25Democratic projected seat 26Democratic projected seat 27Democratic projected seat 28Democratic projected seat 29Democratic projected seat 30Democratic projected seat 31Democratic projected seat 32Democratic projected seat 33Democratic projected seat 34Democratic projected seat 35Democratic projected seat 36Democratic projected seat 37Democratic projected seat 38Democratic projected seat 39Democratic projected seat 40Democratic projected seat 41Democratic projected seat 42Democratic projected seat 43Democratic projected seat 44Democratic projected seat 45Democratic projected seat 46Democratic projected seat 47Democratic projected seat 48Democratic projected seat 49Democratic projected seat 50Democratic projected seat 51Democratic projected seat 52Democratic projected seat 53Democratic projected seat 54Democratic projected seat 55Democratic projected seat 56Democratic projected seat 57Democratic projected seat 58Democratic projected seat 59Democratic projected seat 60Democratic projected seat 61Democratic projected seat 62Democratic projected seat 63Democratic projected seat 64Democratic projected seat 65Democratic projected seat 66Democratic projected seat 67Democratic projected seat 68Democratic projected seat 69Democratic projected seat 70Democratic projected seat 71Democratic projected seat 72Democratic projected seat 73Democratic projected seat 74Democratic projected seat 75Democratic projected seat 76Democratic projected seat 77Democratic projected seat 78Democratic projected seat 79Democratic projected seat 80Democratic projected seat 81Democratic projected seat 82Democratic projected seat 83Democratic projected seat 84Democratic projected seat 85Democratic projected seat 86Democratic projected seat 87Democratic projected seat 88Democratic projected seat 89Democratic projected seat 90Democratic projected seat 91Democratic projected seat 92Democratic projected seat 93Democratic projected seat 94Democratic projected seat 95Democratic projected seat 96Democratic projected seat 97Democratic projected seat 98Democratic projected seat 99Democratic projected seat 100Democratic projected seat 101Democratic projected seat 102Democratic projected seat 103Democratic projected seat 104Democratic projected seat 105Democratic projected seat 106Democratic projected seat 107Democratic projected seat 108Democratic projected seat 109Democratic projected seat 110Democratic projected seat 111Democratic projected seat 112Democratic projected seat 113Democratic projected seat 114Democratic projected seat 115Democratic projected seat 116Democratic projected seat 117Democratic projected seat 118Democratic projected seat 119Democratic projected seat 120Democratic projected seat 121Democratic projected seat 122Democratic projected seat 123Democratic projected seat 124Democratic projected seat 125Democratic projected seat 126Democratic projected seat 127Democratic projected seat 128Democratic projected seat 129Democratic projected seat 130Democratic projected seat 131Democratic projected seat 132Democratic projected seat 133Democratic projected seat 134Democratic projected seat 135Democratic projected seat 136Democratic projected seat 137Democratic projected seat 138Democratic projected seat 139Democratic projected seat 140Democratic projected seat 141Democratic projected seat 142Democratic projected seat 143Democratic projected seat 144Democratic projected seat 145Democratic projected seat 146Democratic projected seat 147Democratic projected seat 148Democratic projected seat 149Democratic projected seat 150Democratic projected seat 151Democratic projected seat 152Democratic projected seat 153Democratic projected seat 154Democratic projected seat 155Democratic projected seat 156Democratic projected seat 157Democratic projected seat 158Democratic projected seat 159Democratic projected seat 160Democratic projected seat 161Democratic projected seat 162Democratic projected seat 163Democratic projected seat 164Democratic projected seat 165Democratic projected seat 166Democratic projected seat 167Democratic projected seat 168Democratic projected seat 169Democratic projected seat 170Democratic projected seat 171Democratic projected seat 172Democratic projected seat 173Democratic projected seat 174Democratic projected seat 175Democratic projected seat 176Democratic projected seat 177Democratic projected seat 178Democratic projected seat 179Democratic projected seat 180Democratic projected seat 181Democratic projected seat 182Democratic projected seat 183Democratic projected seat 184Democratic projected seat 185Democratic projected seat 186Democratic projected seat 187Democratic projected seat 188Democratic projected seat 189Democratic projected seat 190Democratic projected seat 191Democratic projected seat 192Democratic projected seat 193Democratic projected seat 194Democratic projected seat 195Democratic projected seat 196Democratic projected seat 197Democratic projected seat 198Republican projected seat 1Republican projected seat 2Republican projected seat 3Republican projected seat 4Republican projected seat 5Republican projected seat 6Republican projected seat 7Republican projected seat 8Republican projected seat 9Republican projected seat 10Republican projected seat 11Republican projected seat 12Republican projected seat 13Republican projected seat 14Republican projected seat 15Republican projected seat 16Republican projected seat 17Republican projected seat 18Republican projected seat 19Republican projected seat 20Republican projected seat 21Republican projected seat 22Republican projected seat 23Republican projected seat 24Republican projected seat 25Republican projected seat 26Republican projected seat 27Republican projected seat 28Republican projected seat 29Republican projected seat 30Republican projected seat 31Republican projected seat 32Republican projected seat 33Republican projected seat 34Republican projected seat 35Republican projected seat 36Republican projected seat 37Republican projected seat 38Republican projected seat 39Republican projected seat 40Republican projected seat 41Republican projected seat 42Republican projected seat 43Republican projected seat 44Republican projected seat 45Republican projected seat 46Republican projected seat 47Republican projected seat 48Republican projected seat 49Republican projected seat 50Republican projected seat 51Republican projected seat 52Republican projected seat 53Republican projected seat 54Republican projected seat 55Republican projected seat 56Republican projected seat 57Republican projected seat 58Republican projected seat 59Republican projected seat 60Republican projected seat 61Republican projected seat 62Republican projected seat 63Republican projected seat 64Republican projected seat 65Republican projected seat 66Republican projected seat 67Republican projected seat 68Republican projected seat 69Republican projected seat 70Republican projected seat 71Republican projected seat 72Republican projected seat 73Republican projected seat 74Republican projected seat 75Republican projected seat 76Republican projected seat 77Republican projected seat 78Republican projected seat 79Republican projected seat 80Republican projected seat 81Republican projected seat 82Republican projected seat 83Republican projected seat 84Republican projected seat 85Republican projected seat 86Republican projected seat 87Republican projected seat 88Republican projected seat 89Republican projected seat 90Republican projected seat 91Republican projected seat 92Republican projected seat 93Republican projected seat 94Republican projected seat 95Republican projected seat 96Republican projected seat 97Republican projected seat 98Republican projected seat 99Republican projected seat 100Republican projected seat 101Republican projected seat 102Republican projected seat 103Republican projected seat 104Republican projected seat 105Republican projected seat 106Republican projected seat 107Republican projected seat 108Republican projected seat 109Republican projected seat 110Republican projected seat 111Republican projected seat 112Republican projected seat 113Republican projected seat 114Republican projected seat 115Republican projected seat 116Republican projected seat 117Republican projected seat 118Republican projected seat 119Republican projected seat 120Republican projected seat 121Republican projected seat 122Republican projected seat 123Republican projected seat 124Republican projected seat 125Republican projected seat 126Republican projected seat 127Republican projected seat 128Republican projected seat 129Republican projected seat 130Republican projected seat 131Republican projected seat 132Republican projected seat 133Republican projected seat 134Republican projected seat 135Republican projected seat 136Republican projected seat 137Republican projected seat 138Republican projected seat 139Republican projected seat 140Republican projected seat 141Republican projected seat 142Republican projected seat 143Republican projected seat 144Republican projected seat 145Republican projected seat 146Republican projected seat 147Republican projected seat 148Republican projected seat 149Republican projected seat 150Republican projected seat 151Republican projected seat 152Republican projected seat 153Republican projected seat 154Republican projected seat 155Republican projected seat 156Republican projected seat 157Republican projected seat 158Republican projected seat 159Republican projected seat 160Republican projected seat 161Republican projected seat 162Republican projected seat 163Republican projected seat 164Republican projected seat 165Republican projected seat 166Republican projected seat 167Republican projected seat 168Republican projected seat 169Republican projected seat 170Republican projected seat 171Republican projected seat 172Republican projected seat 173Republican projected seat 174Republican projected seat 175Republican projected seat 176Republican projected seat 177Republican projected seat 178Republican projected seat 179Republican projected seat 180Republican projected seat 181Republican projected seat 182Republican projected seat 183Republican projected seat 184Republican projected seat 185Republican projected seat 186Republican projected seat 187Republican projected seat 188Republican projected seat 189Republican projected seat 190Republican projected seat 191Republican projected seat 192Republican projected seat 193Republican projected seat 194Republican projected seat 195Republican projected seat 196Republican projected seat 197Republican projected seat 198Republican projected seat 199Republican projected seat 200Republican projected seat 201Republican projected seat 202Republican projected seat 203Republican projected seat 204Republican projected seat 205Republican projected seat 206Republican projected seat 207Republican projected seat 208Republican projected seat 209Republican projected seat 210Republican projected seat 211Republican projected seat 212Republican projected seat 213Republican projected seat 214Republican projected seat 215Republican projected seat 216Republican projected seat 217Republican projected seat 218Republican projected seat 219Republican projected seat 220Republican projected seat 221Republican projected seat 222Republican projected seat 223Republican projected seat 224Republican projected seat 225Republican projected seat 226Republican projected seat 227Republican projected seat 228Republican projected seat 229Republican projected seat 230Republican projected seat 231Republican projected seat 232Republican projected seat 233Republican projected seat 234Republican projected seat 235Republican projected seat 236Republican projected seat 237218FOR THE MAJORITYProjected range ±21 seats
One circle = one seat. Party totals are model projections, not individual district forecasts.
More about the House forecast
03
2024 forecast

Senate

The balance of power in the upper chamber.

Democrats 0%Republicans 100%
Democrats 44Projected seatsRepublicans 56
AZCACTDEFLHIINMEMAMDMIMNMSMTMONENE*NJNMNYNDNVOHPARITNTXUTVTVAWVWIWYNo changeSeat flip

Senate polls

Explore the state polls behind the Senate forecast.

31 polls
Arizona Senate polls
PollDateDemocratsRepublicansAdjusted marginOriginal margin
Atlas Intel2024-11-0448%47.5%D+0.5%R+0.6%
Atlas Intel2024-11-0248.8%47.1%D+1.7%R+1.7%
NYT / Siena2024-11-0250.9%46.5%D+4.4%D+5%
Emerson2024-11-0249%46.1%D+2.9%D+4.9%
Atlas Intel2024-10-3147.8%48.3%R+0.5%R+0.7%
Noble Predictive Insights2024-10-3047.1%42.9%D+4.2%D+3%
Atlas Intel2024-10-2947.5%48.3%R+0.8%D+0.5%
Rasmussen2024-10-2947.9%43.1%D+4.8%D+4%
Data Orbital2024-10-2843.7%44.7%R+1%R+0.7%
CNN2024-10-2648.7%44.9%D+3.8%D+8%
Page 1 of 4
04
2024 forecast

Governors

The races for the statehouses.

Forecast not yet available

A gubernatorial forecast was not published for 2024. State-by-state odds will appear here when a forecast is available.

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