America Decides
Trump v. Harris
Forecast Odds
290
Average
85%
14%
248
Average
First Polls Close In:
0 days
0 hours
0 minutes
0 seconds
Latest Update: November 04, 2024 at 8:32:09 PM EST
Polling
Odds
Tipping Point
Trump v. Harris Polls
| Poll | Date | Trump | Harris | Adjusted Margin | Original Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlas Intel | 2024-11-02 | 48.7% | 47.9% | R+0.8% | R+1.8% |
| Emerson | 2024-11-02 | 49.7% | 49.1% | R+0.6% | 0% |
| NPR / PBS / Marist | 2024-11-01 | 48.8% | 49.1% | D+0.3% | D+4% |
| Atlas Intel | 2024-10-31 | 48.5% | 48.4% | R+0.1% | R+1.9% |
| Echelon Insights | 2024-10-31 | 47.9% | 47.9% | 0% | D+2% |
| Morning Consult | 2024-10-31 | 47.2% | 48.8% | D+1.6% | D+2% |
| Yahoo News / YouGov | 2024-10-31 | 48.3% | 46.3% | R+2% | 0% |
| Atlas Intel | 2024-10-29 | 48.8% | 48.2% | R+0.6% | R+3% |
| Economist / YouGov | 2024-10-29 | 46.2% | 46.8% | D+0.6% | D+2% |
| Rasmussen | 2024-10-29 | 50.1% | 46.1% | R+4% | R+3% |
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How does the National Popular Vote affect the Electoral College?
Just because you win the national vote, does not mean you win the Electoral College — just ask President Hillary Clinton or President Al Gore.
If the national vote ties, then the odds to win the electoral college would be:
Harris 22.15%, Trump 76.7%, and Tie 1.15%.
EVEN
Battle for the Senate
Forecast Odds
56
100%
0%
44
U.S. Senate Polls
| Poll | Date | Republican | Democrat | Adjusted Margin | Original Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlas Intel | 2024-11-04 | 47.5% | 48% | D+0.5% | R+0.6% |
| Atlas Intel | 2024-11-02 | 47.1% | 48.8% | D+1.7% | R+1.7% |
| NYT / Siena | 2024-11-02 | 46.5% | 50.9% | D+4.4% | D+5% |
| Emerson | 2024-11-02 | 46.1% | 49% | D+2.9% | D+4.9% |
| Atlas Intel | 2024-10-31 | 48.3% | 47.8% | R+0.5% | R+0.7% |
| Noble Predictive Insights | 2024-10-30 | 42.9% | 47.1% | D+4.2% | D+3% |
| Atlas Intel | 2024-10-29 | 48.3% | 47.5% | R+0.8% | D+0.5% |
| Rasmussen | 2024-10-29 | 43.1% | 47.9% | D+4.8% | D+4% |
| Data Orbital | 2024-10-28 | 44.7% | 43.7% | R+1% | R+0.7% |
| CNN | 2024-10-26 | 44.9% | 48.7% | D+3.8% | D+8% |
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Battle for the House
Forecast Odds
237
82%
18%